Since the Doty decision, the coverage tide has shifted. In the past few days alone, several high-profile columnists decried the NFL owners. Bill Simmons. Sally Jenkins. Mike Silver. And more.

These responses are welcome. If you’re like me, you grew tired of media parroting owners’ party lines, but also weary of ignorance and dismissal. You grew tired of NFL Network arms offering one-sided statements prior to the lockout, such as Mike Lombardi, who admonished players on a BS Report, “The players should know once they get to the table, they’ll have to concede some things to the owners.” Lombardi blithely ignored the concept and reality of any negotiation; each side making concessions.

But a final conventional wisdom informs the subtext behind all labor articles, columns, and perception shifts: the NFL’s unmatched success.

To a person – media member, franchise fan, network head, team representative – the NFL appears an unchallenged business machine. To quote Bob Ryan, on Tony Kornheiser’s radio show some time back, “I’ll never again underestimate the American public’s appetite for football.”

With billions in annual revenue, lucrative popularity, dynamite TV ratings, and paying customers seemingly shelling out more and more attention, consumption, and dollars – it appears the NFL’s success knows no bounds.

Except it does.

Basic economic history teaches us no business can simply rise eternally. The media (and, to be fair, NFL public relations) suggests that the league’s popularity amplifies with each passing season – but this isn’t sustainable. No matter how successful the NFL’s marketing is – at some point the league stops being a rising star. At some point, the NFL’s marketing finally saturates all possible eyeballs, TV sets and web browsers. At some point, growth is lateral as opposed to upward. Or worse, at some point, the NFL will plateau and/or decline in growth, popularity and revenue.

In sports history, that decline often accompanies a labor stoppage. Baseball suffered a black mark after cancelling its 1994 season; to some observers, the sport hasn’t fully recovered.

The NBA’s popularity is high now, but it also soared in the Jordan-Olajuwon-Ewing era, and decreased significantly in the late 1990s, right around the 1999 lockout, and a lull in player development. In the early 2000s, labor strife and economics forced the NHL to reinvent its entire business model, still a work in progress for the marginalized sport.

With the NFL, however, the conventional wisdom is that popularity won’t be an issue. The league and players may similarly believe paying customers will eagerly welcome them back, If the lockout occurs (I detect hints of media optimism surrounding this week’s discussions). But is that really true?

Sure, to fans, a loss of football would be “sad.” What would we do with Sundays? ask sports bloggers, tailgaters, and fantasy freaks. But that’s not part of the equation.

Hard-core fans (including most sports bloggers, and even NFL media) will consume the league anyway. They cannot fathom a world where the buying public changes its mind. The diehards will always be there, but casual observers may not. And if their routine is lost – how do you draw them back in?

Imagine CBS somehow drawing a comparable number with college basketball during a November Duke vs. St. John’s game. Imagine Fox or MLB adding a second national game of the week telecast. Imagine the networks make sizeable ad revenue anyway. Imagine if it’s a number they can live with.

Maybe that’s a tough leap, but at some point, maximum saturation will occur. Diminishing returns begins. And the league continues to make money, players continue to earn a worthy living, and fans continue to flock to stadiums or TV sets. But the plateau is here.

Maybe 18 games flattens the league’s growth. Owners salivate over increased gate revenue. But more games means fewer critical games. More games means a saturated fall schedule. More games means paying customers may be able to live without a few weeks of NFL watching.

Maybe head trauma and concussions signify diminishing returns. Parents, high school players, and coaches – at some point they may wonder if playing football is really worth it. Talented players will always play, but what if the talent pool shrinks? What if filling a 53-man roster becomes a chore?

Maybe costs hasten the plateau. Your cable bill rises. Ticket prices rise. More teams threaten to leave cities, and more public-financing battles are fought. In the last five years, we saw the city of Kansas City pony up to fund Arrowhead remodeling, and Arlington, Texas shell out dollars to lure the Dallas Cowboys. We also saw Tampa dismiss public financing of a stadium. Maybe that becomes the new norm. Maybe taxpayers decide that the costs to furnishing an NFL team outweigh the return. When price forestalls demand, the NFL has a problem.

Maybe public policy, finally, hints at the NFL’s descent. And this, finally, is why sports columnists taking sides is important.

The NFL, like any business, league, or coalition, needs the fourth estate to keep it in check. Too often, media – and sports media in particular – is content to idly sit in the background, subconscious that their own pageviews and revenue owes to the NFL’s success. However, their function remains the same — tell the truth, and keep the business in check.

Already this week, you’re learning things you might not have heard before. Oh, sure, we all heard about 18 games. But now, you discover back-room TV negotiations with a lockout in mind.

You read that owners might be tempted to lay off support staff. It’s not a stretch to wonder where support-staff layoffs end. Do they stop with the teams? After all, several owners also serve another business (like Woody Johnson with Johnson & Johnson, or the Fords). Where do the lines blur?

As you know, job elimination is not popular when 10 percent of our workforce is unemployed. Rising prices are tough, tax breaks are confusing, but job loss? That’s the iceberg for the cruise vessel. The NFL teeters upon the edge of this public-relations slope, hoping a work stoppage, labor negotiation or new deal will not diminish its brand awareness.

The decline will happen, at some point. The question for owners and players, then, is how quickly will a labor dispute hasten the fall? How quickly will missed games, practices and seasons trigger the descent?

No matter the side, it’s harmful to find out.

All Colts fans feel skittish going into any game against the Chargers; and rightfully so.

Though every game has been close, the Chargers have won the last three out of four, feature all-time Colt killers Darren Sproles, Mike Scifres and Vincent Jackson; and each game is a stunning, gut-wrenching horrifically gripping contest. I hate this game so much, I’m not sure I can bring myself to watch it.

(Instead, maybe I’ll tune into the Walking Dead: Tonight! The survivors repeatedly make even more stupid, unjustifiable, ridiculous decisions that can’t just be explained away by the apocalypse. When the zombie apocalypse strikes, you’re not going to continually steal away from camp and go to the bathroom on your own. Also, the seven-minute setup at the beginning of the episode to foreshadow death could have been accomplished in two lines of dialogue.)

Regardless, you’ll feel better about tonight’s game after reading Nate’s preview at 18-to-88. Unlike certain whiny Colts blogs, it does not just petulantly argue that the big, bad, mainstream media is out get poor Peyton, who has never helped lose a game; nor thrown a pick that was his fault!

As for me, I’m even more exhausted after Thanksgiving than I was before; and I’ve returned to wall-to-wall work plus novel plus this unkempt space. Plus, the Iowa Hawkeyes have quit on their coach and suffered through five painful losses resembling each other; akin to each episode of The Walking Dead repeating itself. That exhausts me.

Maybe you’ll find me on Twitter, maybe not, but you should follow me anyway. If I’m not ripping on Philip Rivers tonight, chances are I’ll be back in full force throughout the week and the season to make fun of the biggest douche in professional sports. Go Colts!

First, only Bob Sanders shows up on the Colts’ Tuesday injury report. That’s right, as of this-instant, only Demond isn’t playing.

Never mind what you may have already heard about Joseph Addai, Austin Collie, or Gary Brackett. All hands are currently on deck right now, or at least shooting for on-deck. This game is BIG. BIG BIG BIG. I’ll see your Yankees-Red Sox and raise you a sport people actually care about.

Just in case your blood has yet to boil, however, let’s go back in time, once again, to 2007 Clash of the Titans, the undefeated Patriots and undefeated Colts November tilt in Indianapolis.

Perhaps the memory of that game alone sends you into a rage. (It does me.) If it doesn’t, well, here’s this: Bill Simmons’ spiteful spit-take filed after the game. I read this the other day scrolling back through my own stuff, looking for H8TRIOTS week nuggets. And oh, heavens, this column gains douchiness over time. Go, on read it. I’ll wait.

You’re mad now, right? Holy shit, I’m furious. And Bill’s team won that game. (And for Chrissakes, get that guy an editor. That column is at least 1000 words too long.)

Now that we’re all angry, just remember: this was the state of the Patriots in 2007 – everyone’s villain. Polarizing, uncaring, and uprofessional, everyone hated them, our scorn exacerbated by high-profile Boston schmucks in media and entertainment hopping aboard the bandwagon. Red Sox Nation ruled the world, but meatheaded Patriot Colony spread the word.

The 2007 game itself turned out fantastic: a gripping battle of gladiators. FREENEY and Mathis roared out of the gate, and the Colts used blitzing, pressure, and swarming defensive schemes borne out of Dungy’s Cover 2 to rattle Tom Brady and New England’s new-look spread offense. Prior to this game, no one had solved the Patriots – no one considered blitzing on them, for fear of opening yourself up to deep looks to Moss. Pick your poison – if you just sat back in zone or Cover-2, Brady would have a field day with Welker and Faulk. At least the blitz puts a higher premium on offensive execution. And, of course, Sanders and Bethea covered up for a lot of mistakes.

The Colts took the early lead when Manning and Addai coolly spearheaded two methodical drives – Addai breaking a 73-yard screen pass in the waning seconds of the first half. In 2007, the Colts offense was its most balanced, and in a twist of fate, they attempted to bleed clock away from the Patriots. I was proud.

But the Patriots’ offense stormed back, finally, repeatedly discovering Randy Moss. The Colts effectively used Sanders as a spy on Moss most of the game; a unique wrinkle in the Cover-2. In the third-quarter, finally, New England solved this with extra protection and different Moss routes. Sanders also left with an injury, and I know you’re shocked.

Late in the third-quarter, the game swung on a huge Moss catch amid a would-be DPI. The Patriots battled back from 20-10 to take a 24-20 lead with 3:15 left. We Colts fans still assumed we’d win this on a big, end-game drive – you know, like January’s AFC title game. Wasn’t to be – the Patriots sacked Manning, who fumbled. Game over.

Still, we Colts fans left that game confident in a rematch. We’d get them, when it counted.

In a season loaded with hyperbole for the Patriots (Remember, both teams were unbeaten coming in, with only New England portrayed as unstoppable juggernaut), Indianapolis matched up with New England better than anyone. Easily the class of the AFC, the Colts proved time and again their solid 2006 playoff defense was no fluke.

But, sadly, the rematch never happened. The following week, the Colts lost at San Diego, and lost Dwight Freeney to injury. In January, the Colts frittered away their divisional playoff game to the Chargers – its second loss to San Diego. Marvin Harrison’s fumble and Darren Sproles’ touchdown still haunt my dreams.  (Cripes, Billy Volek played in that game.)

As for the Patriots, they steamrolled everyone else but Baltimore and New York. Finally, of course, New England lost a rematch with the Giants in the Super Bowl.   (This prompted roughly six hundred articles, tweets, and backhanded comments from Football Outsiders declaring the Giants the “worst Super Bowl winner ever.”  Unsurprisingly, the NFL allowed New York to retain its trophy.)

In the end, neither juggernaut earned a Super Bowl title. One can (gleefully) make the claim that the Patriots’ upset in Super Bowl 2007 was karma’s bitch-slap to dipshit columns like Simmons’, or to the morass surrounding New England: Spygate, poor sportsmanship, hubris, whatever. Who knows. In 2009, as you know, the Colts had their own chance to finish the year undefeated, but pulled back. I wish they hadn’t. The worst thing that could have happened to last year’s Colts was a playoff loss – and then they’d be still be remembered alongside the almost-legendary 2007 Patriots.

After all, it’s simply ironic that 2007 featured both the decade’s best Patriots team, and its best Colts team – yet neither won the Super Bowl.

But guess what? That’s just another example of the two franchises evolving into mirror images. A play apart in 2003, peaking juggernauts 2007, failed undefeated seasons in separate years. The mirror images continue today.

More to come.

See Pro Football Talk: “…even if we somehow treat the option bonus as guaranteed (which it most definitely isn’t), Smith’s report is $27.5 million off…But ESPN finally has realized that, in the absence of conscience, it’s entirely possible to break the initial story of the long-term deal with the phony numbers, to follow up with the real numbers, and to then hope that 99 percent of the audience never notices the glaring discrepancy.”

Reporting on NFL contracts has been a sham for more than a decade. Amazing that so few of us raise any ire, immediately call out shilling reporters, or lambaste the league’s collusion with media outlets. Is the league’s PR strategy so brazen it’s actually laudable? Or are reporters just business-challenged (Read: stupid)?

For now, forget about the Colts’ atrocious game yesterday that somehow turned into a win. We’ve got excuses: We’re battered. We’re injured. Marvin Lewis refuses to ever go for a fourth-and-short from anywhere in Colts territory. All of that adds up to a win, which is a win, which is a win.

So move on. Remember, it is now WEEK OF THE HATERIOTS. (That looks weird. It looks like I’m talking about hate riots, which I’m not. It also looks similar to Theriot. Or the word “Hat,” instead of “Hate.” This just never looks right. Stupid Patriots.). Scratch that: WEEK OF THE H8TRIOTS.

On Sunday, Phil Simms and Jim Nantz will start the genuflection engine, capping off the mediaite circle-jerk that is the annual Colts-Patriots showdown.

Besides the injury storyline adding to the rivalry, there’s plenty more. Not sure if you noticed, but the Patriots proved they were the best team in the universe last night, by shellacking the previously-unscored upon heathen Pittsburgh Steelers 876-3. If you, a Colts fan, watched this game, then you’re no-doubt knee-deep into WEEK OF THE H8RIOTS already, with old friends like Tom “Samson” Brady, Matt Light, Vince Wilfork, Deion Branch, and Wes Fuckin’ Welker dotting your screen. Yes, that’s correct, New England did run the quick-slant roughly 600 times for a billion yards.

Consider this, also – Tom Brady’s flawless game last night included repeated shots of Samson himself chewing out teammates, castigating officials and opponents alike, taunting the crowd, and spitting venom toward generally everyone. But it’s OK, guys, because WHAT A COMPETITOR. Fuck. That.

For one second, just imagine Peyton Manning berating his teammates like Brady. (If you want to play the card, imagine Mike Vick or Donovan McNabb. I’m just sayin’.)

But imagine Manning scoring a touchdown, then impudently taunting a crowd before an emphatic spike. The media horde would gather up slingshots and catapults, gnashing teeth and decrying the Colts’ 2007 Super Bowl. Bill Simmons would churn out 50,000 words comparing Manning to A-Rod.  But not Brady! Like any white Boston athlete, he’s just “passionate.” Again: Fuck. That.

You see, it’s up to the Colts. The moribund, injury-depleted Colts. The national avalanche and groundswell of debasement at Patriot greatness is nigh – this can only be dismissed with a victory by the hands of the defending AFC champs.

So turn up your hate.

This week, we’ll incite, but also review several turning points in the Colts and Patriots rivalry (but not that ridiculous January 2005 rematch) and we’ll offer insight into Sunday’s game.

The Colts strangely find themselves visiting Foxborough for the first time since 2006. The Patriots, conversely, should have beaten the Colts last year, save for the legendary, misguided 4th-and-2 call. New England also looks to be rounding into health, its role players growing up and its offensive line moving in sync. They cannot possibly play as well as they did last night in successive weeks. Plus, the Colts will (or should) attack differently.

Additionally, blitz-happy Pittsburgh barely challenged Brady. Which is ludicrous. All night, Steelers’ mad rushers dropped back into zone coverage, and Brady sat back and picked apart the flats. The blueprint for beating the Patriots’ spread never has changed – you’ve got to challenge Brady. You’ve got to mix up blitzes and bring the pressure. Sure, you’ll get gashed occasionally – but it won’t be the steady water-torture bloodletting of last night.

You know the game plan. It’s a similar blueprint to beating someone else we know. (Hint: He wears No. 18). In fact, you can have your supposed Goliath defenses, the immovable Jets, Ravens and Steelers. The Colts and Patriots, atop the AFC pecking order, are not only built to feast on those lumbering teams, but the Colts and Pats are mirror images of each other, offensive juggernauts, battling in Massachusetts Sunday afternoon with a forecast of pain. Bring your track shoes.

That grudging acknowledgement of mirror images is all we concede, for now. Bring on the HATE.

Tamme, a fourth-year reserve out of Kentucky, filled in for the Colts in his new role – H-Back/Tight End – previously occupied by now-injured Dallas Clark.

Tamme enjoyed a good game – a few long catches, a touchdown grab, and the third-down catch that extended the Colts drive, which eventually ran the clock to under three minutes.

It wasn’t just Tamme who had a good game as a replacement player. Mike Hart ran and blocked extremely well. Justin Tryon and Ben Francisco had a solid game in the secondary. Blair White ran straight forward on punt returns – a novel concept – and played well. The replacement punter downed a punt inside the 5. Pat Angerer played well as a starter; and Cody Glenn played well on special teams and in spurts on offense.

The Colts even turned to JaVarris James, a relation to former great Edgerrin, after Hart tweaked his ankle. (And after Donald Brown repeatedly looked slow and ineffective). Cripes, if Hart’s injury is serious, how close are we to re-signing Edgerrin himself? (Sort of kidding.)

For the Colts, last night’s must-win game featured the pinnacle of true clichés: Next Man In.

But the Colts won. They played very well as a unit – Mike Hart, Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis, Clint Session, and, of course, Peyton Manning all had standout games. It’s easy to remain awestruck with Manning, and even Freeney. Each is a master of execution. Clyde Christensen/Tom Moore/Manning unfurled an outstanding game plan, and Larry Coyer added new wrinkles to the defense, catching the Texans off-guard. All in all, next-man-in was the reality, and the resulting win is one of the most satisfying in recent regular seasons.

After all, not every team can win when pressed this thin. Not every team can actually coach up “Next Man In.” Bob Kravitz and I are actually on the same page. In a column with similar wistful admiration today, he credits former coach – and Ring of Honor inductee – Tony Dungy with developing this philosophy:

“…It was Dungy who spoke incessantly of “no explanations, no excuses.’‘ It was Dungy who hammered home the notion of “next man up,” which sounds like a whole lot of lip service until you watch this team play year after remarkable year.“This is what we’ve always done,” Dungy, the former Colts coach, said … “It’s what I preached when I got here and (coach) Jim (Caldwell) has just carried it on. … The thing is the veterans didn’t play with any panic. They expect the new guys to play well, and they did.”

The Colts’ offense endured painful periods last night – severely missing the safety valve, Austin Collie; the D-stretcher and chip-blocker, Dallas Clark; the straight-ahead runner and dual threat, Joseph Addai. Donald Brown and Anthony Gonzalez certainly didn’t look healthy. (If they were, uh, woof times two.) Ryan Diem made a few egregious, sloppy errors.

But they still won. Almost too easily. They gutted out a few drives, saving offensive wrinkles like the jailbreak screen, lag draws, and quick slant passes for exactly the right occasion. Uncanny. Tamme and Wayne both caught important third-down slants early in the clock. Garcon sprung two quick outs, and Wayne’s jailbreak touchdown was a thing of beauty.

And, repeatedly, Manning and the O-Line attempted to induce encroachment penalties. I’ve rarely seen anything like it, but it makes sense.

First of all, it worked twice, because Mario Williams and Andre Smith chomped at the bit, frantically attempting to induce false starts. Manning noticed this. Secondly, the Colts knew that every single yard mattered tonight. Without the normal defense-stretchers, Indianapolis needed every single break they could, in order to keep the Texans’ potent offense off the field. They even eschewed the no-huddle to eat up clock. Almost perfect execution, all game.

Defensively, Freeney and Mathis were unstoppable, and the Texans waited to adjust their offense to flares and screens and counter-traps until it was way too late. Kelvin Hayden nabbed a pick-six, and Clint Session also had a fantastic game. (Before, of course, getting hurt.) Additionally, the Colts’ D earned a fourth-down stop and two third-and-short stops early in the game. On both sides of the ball, the Colts executed better.

Even “next man in” notwithstanding. And next-man-in, while a potent phrase, only works for a few teams. Brady and the Patriots preach that discipline – they can afford to jettison troubled talent in order to maximize the good of the team. The Eagles and Titans and Steelers all can “coach up” replacements to an extent.

The good teams can do this. The Colts and Patriots do this better than anyone. And it’s easy to point to a charismatic coach (Dungy), a genius coach (Belichick) or all-time great QBs – but in fact, it’s more than that. It’s actually leadership instilled from the top-down. In the corporate NFL, turns out success occurs just like it does in corporate America. Leadership.

Some franchises cultivate this intangible quality, in which the next guy always rises up. It’s the culture throughout – which is why we sit, halfway through the season, with the familiar Patriots and Colts atop all standings.

The leadership, the execution, the strategy is admirable. For Manning to throw a quick-out to a little-used tight-end on third and three is almost ridiculous. How many other teams would even consider that play?

The Patriots. And the Colts. Next Man In. End of story, once again.

I mean it. Look at the NFL landscape. Somewhat improbably, New England sits atop the entire league with a 6-1 record – though watching them, you’d swear they weren’t actually any good.

And who are the Colts? Well, besides the walking infirmary, the Colts are a team that appears to be unable to stop anyone – a team that must execute perfectly on offense in order to outscore and outslug its opponents.

Remind me again what’s different?

In any case, longtime Patriot-haters have watched this season unfold almost helplessly – as New England somehow earns enough breaks to outwit each overmatched team it plays. (Arguably, both San Diego and Minnesota outplayed New England. Inarguably, the Chargers and Vikings employ two of the worst coaching minds of all time.) But then, this is always the Patriots. They’ve never bludgeoned you with greatness – except maybe the 2007 Super Bowl losers – they’ve always just “done their job” better than counterparts. It’s maddening.

But, really, how different are the Patriots from the Colts? I’m certain that just as many Colt-haters watch our games hoping for schadenfreude. And, just like our rivals, our defense isn’t exactly Murderer’s Row. And, just like our rivals, we’ve got a Hall-of-Fame quarterback running basically a no-huddle (Colts) or spread offense (Patriots).

Further proof Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are two of the best all-time – these teams around them are a far cry from halcyon days of yore. Packed with talented role players, neither recall the 2007 versions of Indianapolis and New England – coincidentally each’s best team of the decade.

In any case, it’s been a while since we looked up at New England. Among the class of the AFC, the Patriots threaten the Colts more than any other team Indianapolis plays. The Colts are actually built to outdo staunch defensive teams: New York, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Tennessee. San Diego is a bugaboo for Indy, but more than anyone else – except one – New England is a threat.

The other? We play them tonight. Our nemeses, the little-brother Houston Texans.

Tonight begins the Colts’ gauntlet. A string of successive opponents that hunger for the playoffs: Houston, Philly, Cincinnati, New England, San Diego, Dallas and Tennessee.

Granted, this looked much worse early in the year, before Cincinnati and Dallas fell apart. The Colts need to go at least 5-2 in these seven weeks if they hope to win the stacked AFC South. They also might want to topple the Patriots if they would prefer to avoid Gillette Field at any other time this year. The season takes crucial twists and turns beginning tonight – and the Colts need to exact revenge against Houston to keep pace in the division.

The Colts host Houston tonight hopefully more prepared than they were in Week 1. They’re also more shorthanded than they were in Week 1. Missing in action: Joseph Addai, Austin Collie, Dallas Clark, Bob Sanders, Melvin Bullitt, and the hits keep on coming. Donald Brown and Anthony Gonzalez will play (such as that is.).

Can they win? Sure. Will they? I think so.

On offense, the line has steadily improved week-to-week. Addai and his understudy, Mike Hart, have both looked solid in the last few weeks, notably against Kansas City and Washington. Without Addai, Indy suffers a little in pass-protection – Addai may be the best pass-blocking running back in the league. I expect Hart to see more action than Brown – he runs a bit better, blocks a bit better, and though big-play potential is less, bad-play potential also decreases. The Colts need to run to win, especially with a depleted pass-corps.

Manning has typically made temporary stars out of tight ends like Ben Utecht, Tom Santi and tonight’s starter, Jacob Tamme. Problem is, he’s usually done so with Clark on the other side. Without Dallas Clark, the Colts’ pass schemes take a major hit (duh.). I’m not sure exactly what to expect tonight – Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon will line up on the outsides, and I’m actually in favor of Anthony Gonzalez playing more of the hybrid slot/possession receiver that Clark plays. I think he’s built for that more than an outside or straight-slot receiver. Blair White should see some action there, assuming he’s not too broken up about his alma mater’s drubbing at the hands of Iowa. (Hee!)

Still, each receiver should get his share of action against the Texans’ secondary, and that includes Brown out of the backfield. If the Texans dare Manning to dink-and-dunk, the Colts will roll – they can control the clock and use Brown and Gonzalez to their advantages. If the Colts struggle to run and chuck too many downfield throws? They’ll be in trouble.

On defense, there’s not much to say. Sure, the Texans are good offensively. But Arian Foster is not Emmitt Smith – the Colts linebackers’ and line needs to play much better. Pat Angerer will likely take over duties for Philip Wheeler, which may be a welcome development, and Gary Brackett will be back. I would expect, however, the Colts to overcompensate defending Houston’s run, and opening themselves up a bit more to the pass. Jerraud Powers and Antoine Bethea have been solid all year – tonight, Kelvin Hayden and our mystery free safety will need to step up considerably.

On the sidelines? Well, the jury’s still out on our coach, Jim Caldwell, and I shudder to think where the Colts would be if Tom Moore had actually retired. The Colts have looked unprepared too many times this year (twice) to think it’s just chance. And Caldwell isn’t without his in-game failures. (AHEM. Timeout against Jacksonville.)

Tonight, besides the unfortunate injuries, the Colts have had fifteen days to prep for the Texans. They should be sharp; they’re at home, and it’s Peyton Manning. Time to stake claim to the division, and time to prep for the gauntlet. That starts tonight.

Go Colts.

In fact, The League’s fantasy football theme delivers the show a lot more press than a show about sarcastic white male friendship normally would.*

*These Monks, speaking of! Coming soon to a bookstore near you! We hope. Someday.

ANYWAY, The League sports one uneven 6-episode season under its belt, and now two episodes into a 13-episode season, the show’s potential still confuses. The AV Club sums up the first season nicely in today’s review:

“For every amusing display of childish antics…the show falls back on misogynist gags that wouldn’t be out of place in a Bud Light commercial. The League seems determined to reach the hardcore football fans who watch those commercials, but it doesn’t have the insight or wit to pick them apart. Yet it’s perpetually two or three strong scenes away from turning the corner…”

That’s one problem. The real problem is the show’s reliance or abandonment on fantasy football.

Obviously, this a lightning rod among critics, a notion akin to Law & Order giving up “the law.” Alan Sepinwall thinks The League succeeds only when it delves into fantasy football tedium – after all, it’s the function of the show’s pitch, marketing, and target. His close friend Bill Simmons, on a recent podcast, sneered at The League – Bill, of course, doesn’t find the male friendship dynamic EXACTLY emblematic of he and his Boston bros. (But of course! It doesn’t resonate with HAHHD-COAH fantasy football fans – like Bill – who fantasize about corporate junkets to Vegas with Jimmy Kimmel, and would never-ever-ever even consider inviting a woman into a fantasy football league. But then, Bill and his college friends are a better gang than the rest of ours. Just ask J-Bug!) The AV Club’s Steve Heisler agrees with me, Hollywood Chicago enjoys the “misanthropic” viciousness occurring at the intersection of fantasy sports and male friendship.

But no matter the opinion, fantasy football is not only the raison d’etre, but also the show’s failure. The League is a promising show when it ditches fantasy football entirely. (Do you ever listen to your dopey friends detail their stupid fantasy football team? As if any of us care? That’s an automatic Facebook block.) Fantasy football may be a central reason these characters are together …except it’s not. Fantasy football may be the only reason people would tune in … except it wouldn’t be. These guys were friends before, during and after their fantasy football team. And if you know anyone so slavishly devoted to fantasy football they need a show that reinforces their TOTALLY CRAZY opinions about Tashard Choice, well, that person sucks. (And might be Matthew Berry).  In fact, The League is authentic, genuine, and funny when it treats fantasy football just like we do – an amusing afterthought that fills in certain cracks in our lives and friendships.

The comedy works when it’s four moderately successful guys simply yearning for the ability to blow off responsibilities and schedule. Four moderately successful guys still trapped a little bit within their college personas – or at least still eager to re-create their college personas. Four guys who use fantasy football to hang out, joke around, and viciously make fun of one another. In their 30s, those opportunities become more and more fleeting. For these guys, fantasy football happens to be the excuse that allows four cynical friends to hang out. And I know, we shouldn’t need an excuse to hang out with our guy friends. But sometimes you do, you know?

And the four leads gang up on each other, spout half-baked theories about life, and suffer indignities and humiliation at the hands the real world, their wives, and each other – well, it’s you and your friends. That’s where the show succeeds – it’s oh-so-close to repeatedly delivering a hilarious, insightful take on 30s male friendship. It’s oh-so-close to a Sex and the City for guys (that sounds seriously ghey, but work with me). And when it gets dragged down, it’s because it’s trying to adhere too tightly to the fantasy football notion – assuming its core audience wants to see more football stuff! And then we get guest appearances by Chad Ochocinco.

That’s probably why The League will eventually fail. Sure, it’s promising. Sure, it dances around becoming a heavyweight. But instead, it’s caught in this nether-region between playing entirely to fantasy football simpletons, or barely relying on fantasy football notion as construct to tie four childish males together. The League needs to make a choice: is it all-in with stupid jokes about masturbating to the selection of Chris Johnson? Or is it brave enough to delve into the snide dynamics of male friendship?

Guess we’ll find out. You know, if we’re not too busy messing around with our fantasy leagues to watch.

The fact is, I’m an animal lover. I cannot stand the thought of cruel punishment to dogs, let alone cats or any other animal. (I’m also partial to kangaroos.)

Franklin & Sophie

That’s why the redemption of Michael Vick will always trouble me. It’s not his demeanor or mindset – it’s that his offense was so grievous. Imagine Rae Carruth coming back. It’s not altogether that different. Not to me.

That being said, Vick was handed a punishment from federal court, and he fulfilled it, and his success currently is a credit to him as a person. He made a mistake, he knows it, and he moved on.

However, don’t tell me that I’m not allowed to retain Vick’s stigma in my mind. Don’t tell me how hollow it sounds when announcers fawn all over him; largely because redemptive is an easy – and fulfilling – story to write. For god’s sakes, don’t misconstrue the argument – and think that because you eat animals, you cannot comment on Vick’s murder of dogs. Don’t tell me this stuff. I can’t hear it.

Peter King (Really?!) actually argues best on behalf of Vick:

There’s a group of people (I hear from them every time I write about Vick) who won’t be happy if Vick succeeds, because of his dogfighting history. But the fact is he did his time and has tried to redeem himself by doing and saying all the right things in the 14 months since the Eagles signed him. Handling the pressure of having the public’s eyes burn into him for so long has to make football seem more like a game and less a pressurized business than it ever has. And he’s playing like it.

And I’m first to agree with him. But in the totality (WARNING: WENT TO LAW-SCHOOL ALERT) of this aftermath, approval, and crime – the Vick approval is somewhat disgusting. First, the harm of the act. Vick knowingly (which, of course, translates to a level of intent) sanctioned the murder of dogs, through complicit conspiracy. We know this. He was convicted. I’m still troubled by it.

During the offseason of 2009, Vick prepped for a comeback with the Eagles. He was suspended for 4 games by the NFL. Donte Stallworth, who accidentally killed a human during a DUI, convicted, and was contrite and pleaded no-contest, was suspended by the league for the season.

Now, stay with me, here. Donte’s was a reckless crime resulting in a human death. Vick’s was a “knowing” crime, resulting in multiple dog killings. If you’re basing the suspensions on the victim, maybe Stallworth’s crime is worse. But not to me. Intent can either reduce or increase culpability – and “knowing” is more egregious than “reckless.” It appears to me, however, that the NFL office understands “intent” as well as their league officials understand the subtext of replay rules.

Besides the Stallworth inconsistency, however, commentators rushed to the top of Mt. Pious to lambaste Braylon Edwards and/or the Jets for not sitting Mr. Edwards – on the same day that Vick’s redemption continues to be celebrated. It’s OK to be happy for Vick, I suppose. But it’s not OK, to me, to celebrate his return as some sort of crown to personal odyssey, let alone triumph.

And sure, it’s wrong to drive drunk – I’ve even made the mistake myself, “blowing” Edwards out of the water with a 0.22 – but nobody died because of Edwards. Dogs died because of Vick. And you can try and tell me that the result or collateral doesn’t matter – rather, the conceivability of death was possible during Edwards’ indiscretion. But then, explain Donte Stallworth’s hefty suspension? Compare it to Vick’s. (Hint: I just did.) If you argue that, are not Edwards and Stallworth the same? And how ridiculous is that? No DUI case is strict liability. Ask any attorney, ever.

But, maybe you’re still confused. (Especially if you acted as bullshit adviser to Michael and now act as Captain Moral for Edwards.)

No matter how good he’s looked for 10 quarters, Vick’s crime was worse. His intent was worse. His mistake was worse, and he’ll always bear the stigma. No matter how far he comes afterward, the stigma will always remain. How, then, does your rage boil only for Edwards or the Jets? If we’re going to play morality police for Edwards, then why – and how – is some outrage not still reserved for Michael Vick?

Because, clearly, we have outrage to spare.

You surely remember sportswriters’ collective scorn when James announced his decision. You might remember the bitter disdain, the easy-story, the potshots taken at James from all keyboards and all comers and basically from everywhere. You might read stories about LeBron’s negative Q rating, or wonder how LeBron will ever rebuild his battered public image.

You might hate LeBron James. And you might not be alone. You might think he is a small person, an awful ingrate, and a pariah of sorts. And you might actually think that no matter what happened after the Decision, that LeBron cannot possibly restore any sort of goodwill. Maybe he’s forever damaged goods – a mean-spirited, uncaring sellout. What a cocksucker, right? (link)

But remember back in 2006? Didn’t you hate Michael Vick?

You, no doubt, remember. Michael Vick knowingly supported a dogfighting ring among his underlings. Dogs were murdered, savaged, beaten, destroyed and maimed at a facility he knew about. He was friends with the perps. Michael Vick conspired to murder animals. He was convicted.

Think about that. Conspiracy. Intent. Murder. Dogs. Michael Vick did all this, and though he’s “paid his debt,” “served time,” or whatever, Mike Vick still killed dogs. Brutally and savagely. It’s a stigma he has to pay for, and that he’s earned, no matter your personal opinion.

Now, fast forward to this very NFL season. Michael Vick, backup quarterback for the Philadelphia Eagles, has strung together six good quarters of football. Vick is now starting quarterback for the Eagles, having supplanted Kevin Kolb, who supplanted Donovan McNabb, who – by all accounts, intents and purposes – is a superior quarterback to Vick. Vick, from prisoner to contrition to starting quarterback.

You may have hated Vick when you learned of his heinous acts. Well, what say you now?

-        You endorse the move.

-        You love Vick as a starting quarterback.

-        Vick is great on the field, and that’s all that matters.

-        Vick deserved this. He may win our hearts yet!

-        Vick is Top Dog. (Uh, really?)

-        Vick has paid his dues. This is great.

You say all those things. You really do. And they’re not even really false. I’m all for second chances, just like you.

But now, explain to me how LeBron will never overcome his negative public relations? You know, LeBron. Remember? The guy who has so brutally savaged a city that his Q rating may never recover. That’s all we’ve heard, all summer. Now look at this. LeBron didn’t kill dogs. Explain to me how you won’t write glowing things about LeBron James in nine months.

And then explain to me how the decision was such a public relations nightmare. You might remember, I argued the opposite. Go ahead, explain.

I’ll wait.

Mark Sanchez chose those words. And boy, is he right.

We’re always so excited for the NFL to begin that we leap – off cliffs – to conclusions after Week 1, desperate to put everything in stone and assert our intellect. (In fact, The Big Lead has already penciled in the Houston Texans vs. the University of Michigan in the Super Bowl.) The Patriots: Unbeatable! The Colts: Finished! Michael Vick: Hall of Famer! San Francisco: Woeful! The Jets: Couldn’t score with a TV reporter! (Maybe I misremember that one…)

Personally, I felt the same way. The Colts hadn’t won since beating the Jets in January. Sunday night’s win was cathartic, relieving, and blissful – at least I knew they could once again win a football game.

We know this is never true. But we rush to judgment, anyway. Still, rarely do we see a Week 2 so filled with bounce-backs. Severe regressions to the mean – as teams 0-1 generally played with an air of desperation, chips on shoulders, or furious intensity. Consider:

• Colts. Returned home and utterly destroyed the Giants. As you know.
• Chargers. Now playing in the daytime, in beautiful San Diego, ripped the Jaguars apart.
• Falcons. Dominated the Cardinals.
• Jets. Knocked out the Patriots.
• Bengals. Played “smash-mouth” with the Ravens and capitalized on turnovers.
• 49ers. Completely outplayed the Saints – if not for untimely fumbles, they may have won.

Maybe it’s natural – 1-0 teams might have subconsciously relaxed. 0-1 teams might really subconsciously play with backs against the wall. And even moreso – is it possible the NFL has returned to an era of homefield dominance?

All six teams above played brilliantly in front of their home fans. Five of these teams won their home openers. Even in front of a corporate stadium crowd, like Lucas Oil or the Georgia Dome, the hometown heroes looked superhuman. (I should also point out, at the new Meadowlands, the ‘J-E-T-S’ chant is phenomenal.)

Maybe, though we’ve left abject parity behind, home field once again reigns supreme in the NFL. Maybe parity is actually so widespread individually that anyone can beat anyone – and desperation just gives an added edge. (This has probably always been a little true.)

In any case, it’s tough to really get a sense of the true powers in the league until Week 4. Sure, Alex Smith and Mark Sanchez looked great this week – but will it be consistent?

That said, so far we’re buying:

Steelers (2-0), Dolphins (2-0), Jets (1-1), Texans (2-0), Titans (1-1), Colts (1-1), Falcons (1-1), Saints (2-0), Packers (2-0), 49ers (0-2).

Not totally sold:

Ravens (1-1), Bengals (1-1), Patriots (1-1), Chargers (1-1), The entire NFC East, Bears (2-0), Broncos (1-1), Bucs (2-0).

Hopeful:

Chiefs (2-0), Vikings (0-2), Lions (0-2), Raiders (1-1)

Woeful:

Bills (0-2), Browns (0-2), Jaguars (1-1), Panthers (0-2), Rams (0-2), Seahawks (1-1), Cardinals (1-1).

Never fear, however. What I’m not going to do is lie to you about predictions: they’re gloriously fun. Don’t let anyone tell you differently. Not even Football Outsiders – who bristle at any notion their predictions might be wrong, going so far as to admonish readers who dare to question, and even couching all predictions with statistical evidence that they’ll likely fail, so just ease up, you guys!( http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings/2010/2010-staff-predictions)

Oh, Football Outsiders. Your misplaced anger and admonishments remind me of Michael Wilbon. If Step 1 of writing success is relevance, Step 2 must be alienation.

(I’ve achieved neither.)

Never mind if predictions are based on KUBIAK, DVOA, hunches, poetry, comedic possibilities or even contrived, manufactured trends that exist in your mind despite all evidence to the contrary.

In the end, nobody actually cares who picked what, and it’s not an assault on your career simply because you thought Cleveland might be good that one time. In fact, the only person who will likely ever bring up your own failure is you. So suck it up, stop taking your precious analysis so seriously, make the predictions, and enjoy the season to follow. Sadly, it’s probably the last for a while. Enough jabbering. To the meat:

NFC

East

1.      New York Giants. The Jets have stolen nearly all the Giants’ thunder, and the NFC counterpart has endured a quiet preseason. That’s good. Also, the defensive line, secondary, and O-Line should be healthy – with those intact, they’re still class of this division.

2.      Dallas Cowboys. Wade Phillips, year four.

3.      Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles, like the Patriots, mercilessly adhere to their philosophy (link = yesterday), which dictated they enter the Kevin Kolb era, even if this year may be a write-off.

4.      Washington Redskins. Despite the fanatical following, this is probably another team with a lost year on the road to competence – though Mike Shanahan and Donovan McNabb certainly help make those strides.

North

1.      Minnesota Vikings. Before Brett Favre, the Vikings had a rush-heavy, defense-first team that finished 10-6 and made the playoffs. Should Favre regress, the overall talent is still extremely high, but the apple cart isn’t overturned.

2.      Green Bay Packers. They put up 59 points on the Colts’ reserves and Aaron Rodgers is suddenly the second coming? Really? I mean, I’m a Colts fan. I’ve seen prolific offenses with pedestrian defenses yield utter playoff disappointment. So what am I missing?

3.      Detroit Lions. Out of all the young talent they’ve assembled, I think I’m most proud that their coach is actually cerebral, intelligent, and qualified. Don’t laugh – those guys are few and far between.

4.      Chicago Bears. Apparently a city pays for its NHL title with successive Cubs-Bears train wrecks.

South

1.      Atlanta Falcons. They suffered a typical sophomore slump last year when everyone saw them coming. Now, they’ll rebound, plus they get four games against Carolina and Tampa Bay.

2.      New Orleans Saints. A bit of malaise is expected after the Saints’ Super Bowl victory saved the free world, restored order to a region bereft of all hope, ensured democracy for all, delivered cookies to an orphanage, and stroked thousands of cuddly kittens.

3.      Carolina Panthers. Report: Winning a few meaningless games after you’re out of contention might make you a sleeper the next season.

4.      Tampa Bay Buccaneers. How not to deal with the egregious mistake of hiring a 32-year-old unproven offensive coordinator from Kansas State? Giving him a second year.

West

1.      San Francisco 49ers. I think the only thing holding these guys back from making the leap is the quarterback. I know, I’m supposed to dig deeper in analysis, but come on! That’s it, isn’t?

2.      St. Louis Rams. Am I the only one who thinks Sam Bradford is a Manningesque sure thing? Sure, the rest of the team is brutal, but so is this division.

3.      Arizona Cardinals. Don’t let anyone fool you – Kurt Warner’s Hall of Fame candidacy depends on this Arizona team’s 3-13 freefall.

4.      Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks are deader than grunge. YEP, THAT’S A 1996 REFERENCE, FOLKS. YOU DON’T GET COMEDY LIKE THAT ANYWHERE ELSE.

AFC

East

1.      Miami Dolphins. Another case of a coach and a system turning out to be surprisingly competent, even if Tony Sparano wears a tarp to games.

2.      New York Jets. Like everyone else, I watch Hard Knocks, and I’m sorry – but Mark Sanchez is not bright. He comes off, like, brick-stupid. Sure, they can defend and run and hold off teams for a while. But how far can they expect to go with him?

(Also, Hard Knocks, for me, has been disappointing this year, largely because it’s more scattershot than the sterling Bengals documentary of 2009. I think the formula calls for a team with a lot of unknowns, a bit of mystery, and maybe even failure the previous season. With the Jets, it’s felt like the producers have hundreds of storylines they’re desperate to get across. I mean, I don’t need to know that aging veterans LaDainian Tomlinson and Jason Taylor are hoping for a ring. I get it.)

3.      New England Patriots. “This is the end … my only friend, the end…”

4.      Buffalo Bills. Remember the days of NFL parity? You know, when everyone was sort of good and Tampa won a Super Bowl? Parity was an overarching theme during the early part of the decade. Not anymore. It’s been 12 years since the salary-cap rules of 1998, and though it took a while, certain teams have figured out exactly how to sustain cap and talent success over the long haul. The haves get richer, and impending salary-cap cataclysms have become a thing of the past (San Francisco 2002, Jacksonville 2003, Kansas City 2005). However, the clueless continue an unenviable slide. Speaking of the have-nots, welcome to Buffalo.

North

1.      Baltimore Ravens. Talented and well-coached, but I can’t shake the notion that they’re still a fairly dumb team – lots of penalties, lots of mistakes. I’m not bullish, but I think they’re the class of this division.

2.      Pittsburgh Steelers. This division is actually pretty good. I could see the Ravens/Steelers/Bengals all making the playoffs.

3.      Cincinnati Bengals. I’d swear that with Matt Leinart’s failure and current underwhelming stints by Carson Palmer, Matt Cassel, and Sanchez, we may be overvaluing USC quarterbacks just a tad.

4.      Cleveland Browns. (Pandering statement toward mopey Cleveland fans, perhaps mentioning LeBron James.)

South

1.      Indianapolis Colts. I used to think the window was shutting. Now I realize they’re just smarter and more professional than everyone. Also, I know Tony Ugoh got cut today; and sure, the rushing attack hasn’t been the best in the last few years. But I’m not worried about the O-Line, nor the composition of undrafted players. I think everything’s OK. Guess we’ll see.

2.      Tennessee Titans. Do you realize the Colts and Titans don’t play until Week 14? That could be a (snicker) … wait for it … keep waiting … still waiting? … CLASH OF THE TITANS!

3.      Houston Texans.  Though talented, someone somewhere once summed them up as a very corporate-feeling team. Even in a corporate-feeling league, the Texans have no soul.

4.      Jacksonville Jaguars. Jack Del Fuckin’ Rio is SURE this is the year this team WHOOPS SHIT UP.

West

1.      Oakland Raiders. That’s right, I did. I believe this defense is the best in the division and the offense is marginally competent. Hello, playoffs!

2.      San Diego Chargers. Bill Simmons is wrong about a lot of stuff, but I’m with him on Norv. Each season, this team backslides, sloppier and sloppier. Soon nothing will be left.

3.      Denver Broncos. Even with a tandem of Orton-Tebow-Quinn, I don’t think quarterback is the problem.

4.      Kansas City Chiefs. Hubris knows no bounds – each GM, coach, offensive coordinator proves more arrogant than the other. Either way, the lack of talent is still inexcusable.

Best record. Indianapolis.

Worst record. Tampa Bay.

Wild Cards? New Orleans, Green Bay, New York Jets, Tennessee

Super Bowl? The Vikings defeat the Colts. Sure, Minnesota has its issues – but I believe they have a 2006 Steelers or 2007 Colts vibe (rather than a godawful 2009 Cubs vibe). Minnesota’s near-miss and resulting disappointment should fuel the following run. And though their regular season might suffer based on schedule, injury, or luck – the talent here is good enough to get the job done when the playoffs begin.