Remember last post? We hinted at the comparison of the 2010 tournament to 2000 and 2002. Here’s why.
In 2002, few teams overwhelmed, and the field seemed wide-open, just like this year.
Also just like this year, Kansas was seeded No. 1 and a popular postseason pick. Maryland also was seeded No. 1, and the Terps and Jayhawks squared off in the national semifinal – both clearly were the two top teams in the tournament. On the other side of the bracket, Oklahoma and Indiana battled in the national semifinals for the honor of runner-up. Obviously, I’d compare Kansas and Syracuse in 2010 as the possible parallel, and the added bonus is Bob Huggin’s West Virginia team resembling a grinding Kelvin Sampson-Oklahoma squad.
The parallels might hearken closer to 2000, however. In that season, we entered the tourney with only one clear-cut favorite: Michigan State. No one else was that close, particularly among No. 1 seeds. Further testimony to that, No. 1s Arizona and Stanford were knocked out in the second round, by Wisconsin and North Carolina, respectively. Like this year, certainly two or three No. 1 seeds are vulnerable – and just as many prognosticators universally picked Kansas as the mad rush for Michigan State in 2000.
Also, in 2000, Michigan State also suffered similar bracket construction as Kansas. The Spartans’ region featured No. 2 Iowa State, actually the second-best team in the country (and also, who should have beaten MSU), No. 4 Syracuse, who began the year 19-0, was No. 1 in the Big East, but was upset in the conference tournament (See.), eventually losing to Michigan State, even with a 14-point halftime lead. (I wept.) No 6 UCLA, who underachieved early in the year, was scorching-hot entering the tournament, and blitzed three-seeded Maryland by 35.
That region was the only one adhering closely to chalk, everywhere else was chaos. (Bill Self took No. 7 Tulsa to an Elite Eight) and three No. 1 seeds were out by the second weekend. In particular, the Wisconsin-Purdue final in the Midwest made time stop.
And it doesn’t take a Mensa scholar to forecast an early No. 1-seed upset or early No. 2-seed upsets this year. These don’t happen every year, but they do happen often. And Villanova, Ohio State, Kansas State and West Virginia aren’t exactly juggernauts. Even mediocre teams like Missouri, Clemson, BYU or Oklahoma State could get hot. None of the above put anyone away – and it only takes one hot-shooting squad to fell the high seeds. Several already forecast a Duke upset at the hand of Louisville; and I could even see Texas beating Kentucky. As you know. And don’t get me started on Gonzaga, Florida State and Butler, all specifically constructed to destroy a 2-3 zone.
So we may have chaos, if circumstance and history are any guide. But even adhering to my first-reaction picks, two pods are giving me headaches. Heck, let’s make it three.
