Quarterflash: NFL Status Update

Everyone ranks teams at the quarter-pole. Everyone does the power rankings, the DVOA, the monthly check-in, whatever. We’re not copying, we’re just happily joining the status quo – In the case, certain the wisdom of crowds prevails, and four weeks actually do merit an accurate snapshot of the NFL landscape.

After 25 percent of our season, there are few teams we know little about. Let’s revisit our predictions and make a sweep of the league. First things first, however.

• Is parity dead? Look around. Only eight teams really have a shot at winning it all, and the rest aren’t close. Look around further – seems like the NFL currently has more woeful franchises than ever before. Would it really surprise if the Chiefs, Browns, Bucs, or Rams failed to win a game? (Yes, I’m sure a few of them square off. Lucky for those viewers!)
• 2. Gregg Easterbrook opines in his latest dreadful column: “If you doubted TMQ’s dictum that a football team’s essence is its offensive line, doubt no more.” Then he started bitching about The Dark Knight and complaining about the Star Trek remake (probably). Well, he infuriates, but he’s right. The best teams build from the O-Line outward. The worst teams fail to grasp the concept. This has always been true, we suspect – but rarely has it been so evident. The Giants, Vikings, Saints and Ravens boast fantastic offensive lines. Are they the best teams in the league?
• 3. When the salary cap and “firing/cutting players” era began, shortly after the 49ers and Cowboys’ 1990s runs,  conventional wisdom generally held that a team could load up for a short window, but couldn’t avoid sudden decimation after the window slammed shut, contracts ballooned, and players got old. (Read: Kansas City, 2007; San Francisco, 2000; Jacksonville, 2001.) Well, this may no longer be true. New England, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, New York, Philadelphia and Baltimore may have actually mastered the art of sustainability — investing a lot in a little, and developing talent through role play and sustainability – all starting within, you guessed it, the offensive line.

AFC East.

Prediction: Miami, New England, New York, Buffalo.

Current: New York, New England, Miami, Buffalo.

Dolphins. Brain cramps cost the Phish against the Colts in week 2, but run correctly, the Wildcat can be effective. I still think this team could still battle for the playoffs.
Patriots. Brady’s re-learning curve is similar to Manning’s last season – two superstars uncharacteristically searching for sealegs after injury. In fact, the two juggernaut teams remain remarkably similar – run games still fractured, defenses not quite sound.
Jets. Darrelle Revis is a shutdown corner. David Harris was another great draft pick at LB. Bart Scott was a great signing. Mark Sanchez is dreamy.
Bills. End this Dick Jauron era, go back to the throwbacks, and give your fans some hope. For crying out loud, there has been enough talent here to contend for the playoffs for five years.

AFC Central.
Prediction: Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Cleveland.

Current: Ravens, Bengals, Steelers, Browns.

Steelers. Suffering a little too much malaise for a defending champ. Not that they won’t figure it out, and probably beat the Ravens.
Ravens. Loaded, feisty, and potentially great. With a solid offensive line and QB, this could actually turn into playoff success, as long as they stop throwing 50 times a game. Seriously, what does Cam Cameron have to prove? (Uh, never mind.)
Bengals. You wondered watching Hard Knocks if this team didn’t actually have quite a bit of talent. Since it was Hard Knocks, you assumed they didn’t.
Browns. I once bet someone that Brady Quinn would be a better pro quarterback than Sam Bradford. I now want that moment back.

AFC South.
Prediction: Indianapolis, Tennessee, Houston, Jacksonville

Current: Colts, Texans, Jaguars, Titans.

Colts. I’m just happy in relief when the Colts appear legitimate. Even if they can’t run the ball, stop the Wildcat and face the mother of all trap games on Sunday night. Also, I remain convinced the Colts are better without Anthony Gonzalez than they are with him. Had Pierre Garcon been in the slot last year on 2nd and 6 versus San Diego, we might well have won that game.
Houston and Jacksonville. If either of these two was coached by Jeff Fisher, I’d think they had a playoff shot. Instead, I’m just glad my favorite team faces Gary Kubiak and Jack Del Rio four times a year.
Titans. Wait – so you mean to tell me that we shouldn’t have hitched our solid team’s future to Kerry Collins?

AFC West.
Prediction: San Diego, Denver, KC, Oakland

Current: Broncos, Chargers, Raiders, Chiefs

Chargers. Simmons was all over this  – it’s the third year of Norv Turner’s reign of incompetence, and the Chargers look sloppy, unpolished, and currently ride a reverse-dead-cat-bounce. In the extreme, this can work as poorly as Herm Edwards’ 2008. In this case, the whining has started, the injuries have mounted, and the finger-pointing has started. Good luck.
Broncos. No, Kyle Orton isn’t as good as Jay Cutler. But the Broncos annually focus on their offensive line, they’ve got one of the game’s best tackles in Ryan Clady, and the separation between Baby Jay and Purdue’s Pride is not as far as you think with the O-Lines swapped.
Chiefs. Good lord. This Todd Haley “you could take 22 guys off the street and win 2 NFL games” quote is going to live in infamy forever, just like Dusty Baker’s “walks just clog the bases” quip.
Raiders. Who could have foreseen, that an overweight, rocket-armed malcontent who couldn’t be bothered to play hard in college, would get to the pros and all his bad habits would doom his team forever? Who?

NFC East.
Prediction: New York, Dallas, Philadelphia, Washington.

Current: Giants, Eagles, Cowboys, Washington.

Giants. New York has done nothing to make me think they’re not the best team in football. Tremendous draft after tremendous draft, these guys aren’t even that old, and they just keep plugging in role players who turn out fantastic.
Cowboys. This ship careens toward a marvelous disaster. Terrell Owens, for all his flaws, really took the media heat off inept Wade Phillips and bumbling Tony Romo.
Eagles. Strangely, I think all this Vick and McNabb and McCoy and Maclin and Jackson stuff is going to work for them. And I look forward an impending deal for Kevin Kolb, the Eagles swindling some poor sucky team out of two years’ worth of draft picks.
Washington. Seriously, who cares? The fans take this team too seriously, and the rest of us are bored to tears. It’s been a train wreck since Snyder took over. TEN YEARS AGO.

NFC Central
Prediction: Green Bay, Minnesota, Chicago, Detroit

Current: Vikings, Bears, Packers, Lions.

Packers. Perhaps the worst offensive line in football, protecting the second coming of Rob Johnson. Oh, sure, we all want Aaron Rodgers to succeed, so no one excoriates him for holding onto the ball for all eternity. But this isn’t good. And Dom Capers is proving to be perhaps the most overrated coach of all-time anywhere. He took the NFC’s best defensive end and made him a linebacker. Imagine the Colts making Dwight Freeney a linebacker.
Vikings. Another team stacked with talent everywhere. Signing Steve Hutchinson, drafting Adrian Peterson and plucking Percy Harvin all have been brilliant moves. What, you mean it actually works to take the best player available?
Bears. Like I said, this ain’t the 2006 Bears defense. Jay Cutler may turn in one more win for a team that should be 8-8. I thought game one this season was simply two sleepwalking titans – turns out Packers vs. Bears was simply two flawed teams.
Lions. Getting frisky in the motor city…

NFC South

Prediction: New Orleans, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Carolina.

Current: Saints, Falcons, Panthers, Bucs

New Orleans. All I want to know is why they insist on wearing white at home. Why? The old gold and black of Clear Lake high school, I mean, that’s a winner!
Atlanta. Speaking of uniform missteps – these guys desperately need to don the throwbacks.
Carolina. So I was right about something.
Tampa Bay. You know what, this entire division wears white at home. I hate dumb teams.

NFC West.
San Francisco is for real, a refreshing, healthy dose of uniform karma.

Everyone else in this division is terrible, so the 49ers waltz to the playoffs. It’s good to know some things never change.