You’ve all been waiting for it, now here it is. I’ll spare you my annual soliloquy claiming (1) I don’t know how to gauge drafts anymore, (2) The NBA Draft now closely resembles the MLB Rule 4 Draft; (3) I’m down on all these young tweeners with poor skills but unlimited upside (4) Everyone and their dog crafts a mock draft, whether privy to inside information, used by various teams as a puppet, aggregating gossip, or blindly throwing darts, (6) The whole exercise is petty and futile.
So there’s that. Anyway, here’s one jaded onlooker’s view of the draft, its possibilities, and its fruitless rationalizing. How did this draft look great during college basketball’s season – yet now looks so poor? Months ago a friend of MFG commented Oklahoma’s Blake Griffin would have gone third. I didn’t believe it then, but it turns out, he was spot-on. (I know, you’re reeling. I actually have tangible friends. Believe it!)
- Chicago Bulls. Derrick Rose, Memphis. The NBA season wasn’t as fantastic or revolutionary as its league partners would have you believe. However, its two breakout stars were Deron Williams and Chris Paul. Doubtful that’s gone unnoticed. Rose may not be the passer Paul is, but he’s faster than either point guard, with a lethal first step. The Bulls have a full backcourt, but it’s an average backcourt. Gotta take the best player available, worry about Ben Gordon and Kirk Hinrich later.
- Miami Heat. Michael Beasley, Kansas State. I’m sorry, I don’t buy a team waffling over Beasley and falling in love with Mayo because of one player’s character issues. It’s like steering clear of KFC because you don’t like grease and heading straight to A&W. Like claiming you refuse to sit through The Love Guru but punching two tickets for Zohan. It’s Beasley, and it’s an easy choice.
- Minnesota Timberwolves. OJ Mayo, USC. I actually think Mayo has a chance at being an outstanding player, similar to Dwyane Wade, but not as gifted offensively. However, I think he especially could be a difference maker on the defensive end. Of course, like most teams, Minnesota looks at him, sees an athlete, and immediately says: “He could play point guard!” No, no he can’t. At least it would be a step closer to abandoning the Randy Foye/Rashad McCants morass.
- Seattle Sonics. Danilo Gallinari, foreign. The drop-off in this draft is monumental after the top-3. The perfect excuse for notorious skinflints Seattle to snag another unheard-of foreigner, and ship him to a different country until everyone forgets about him. (Souleman Sene.) I don’t mean to be hard on Seattle, but their recent draft history outside of Kevin Durant is, shall we say, a bit checkered.
- Memphis Grizzlies. Jerryd Bayless, Arizona. Point guards! We’ve got point guards! Bayless fits neatly into Memphis’ rotation of Javaris Crittenton, Mike Conley, and Kyle Lowry. Makes perfect sense.
- New York Knicks. Russell Westbrook, UCLA. According to most mock drafts, he’s a fast riser. Which should scare the shit out of everyone. What’s he bring to the table? Oh, he’s a lockdown defender. Well, supposedly, but he played slow-down with Ben Howland in school. He’s athletic. Gulp. He’s been compared to Rajon Rondo. The No. 6 pick in the draft, ladies and gents, intended to revive New York basketball, and he’s compared to a point guard barely above replacement level. Color me unimpressed. (Maybe he can play point guard!)
- L.A. Clippers. Eric Gordon, Indiana. I’m lower on Gordon than any other player in this draft; was never impressed in college, and of course, he resembles DaJuan Wagner in game, stature, and legend. Good luck with that. (By the way, I love it when prognosticators compare Eric Gordon to Ben Gordon. Wow! Dig deep, professors. What led you to that?)
- Milwaukee Bucks. Joe Alexander, West Va. Living proof that if you can bang your head on the rim, you’ll get drafted super-high. For a team with no idea what to do with you.
- Charlotte Bobcats. Kevin Love, UCLA. Yes, I’m a skeptic. Basically, they’re taking Sean May all over again. Love is another great college player benefiting from a weak draft. If he’s ever on a loaded contender, as the fourth option, he’ll be fine. Here, not so much.
- New Jersey Nets. Not a clue. If they can trade this for an additional parking spot in Brooklyn, maybe they will. I’ll pencil in Brook Lopez. I actually don’t think he’s a bust. (Stanford).
- Indiana Pacers. Darrell Arthur, Kansas. I think Arthur is vastly underrated; I also think reports of him “not trying” are overreported. He’s still a bit raw, but polished against players just his stature. Could have a season similar to Julian Wright, which for a No. 11 pick, is just fine. No, I don’t compare them just because they’re from KU. Supposedly they’re trading for TJ Ford, which is just re-arranging deck chairs at this point.
- Sacto Kings. DJ Augustin, Texas. They need to try out a point guard, unless they trade Ron Artest for Jordan Farmar or something. (And why would they? It makes too much sense.). Augustin may as well be Jamaal Tinsley’s son. Great college player. We’ll see in the pros.
- Portland TrailBlazers. Brandon Rush, Kansas. This is the perfect pick for them, and I’ll admit, as my new (retro) favorite team (Coming soon! Learn why!), I shoehorned these last few picks in order to deliver Rush to the Blaze. For a team with three big-time draft hits in three years, Rush stands a chance at being a fantastic role player.
- Golden State Warriors. Chris Douglas-Roberts, Memphis. I’ve seen everyone from Kuofos to Greene to Randolph to Thompson pegged in this spot. How about the only ‘tweener with an unstoppable mid-range game in the draft? He’s offense-first, also, so Nellie should love him. Fun fact: I think this kid might be a top-five talent in this draft. I think everyone’s not talking about him in order to sneak up and snatch him. I thought the same thing about Lawrence Moten.
- Phoenix Suns. Mario Chalmers, Kansas. Chalmers’ stock is rising, even though I can’t foresee him as much more than a backup. That said, he’d be a great backup in Phoenix, and allow the Suns to shop Barbosa. I’m not going to mention that he would even have been a better fit in the fun n’ gun Suns – you know, before Steve Kerr decided to rebuild the 1994 Knicks.
- Philadelphia 76ers. Donte Greene, Syracuse. Philly got lucky with a schizo raw, malcontent freshman once in Andre Iguodala. They’ll try it twice with Greene. I’m sure you’re shocked, but I’m not optimistic about Mr. Greene. Safe to say when you’re clearly the third-best player on an underachieving NIT squad; you’re probably not NBA-ready. Just a thought.
- Toronto Raptors. Anthony Randolph, LSU. What’s the ceiling for Randolph? Steven Hunter? Sam Dalenbert? What’s the basement? Patrick O’Bryant? I never heard of him before the draft; now he’s projected in the lottery. Please. The Raps can afford this mistake, assuming they can make that no-brainer trade for Jermaine O’Neal.
- Washington Wizards. At this point I don’t know. Not that I will know at any point. How about Mareese Speights? He’s from Florida. And, no, I never heard of him, either.
- Cleveland Cavaliers. Kosta Kuofos, Ohio State, “Workout Wonder.” And LeBron James dies a little inside. Trade this pick, next year’s, and some of your trash and get this guy some help!
- Denver Nuggets. Shan Foster, Vanderbilt. I’m not even kidding. Denver has employed exactly one sharpshooter in the last eight years, and it was Voshon Lenard. If the Nuggets are ever going to be good (and with AI and Camby, they’ve got two years), they need to do three things: (1) Make sure Kenyon Martin never plays a game again, (2) Finally find a shooter, ever.
- New Jersey Nets. I’m disappointed with my mock draft, because I thought I was differentiating from others by predicting drops for Love, Randolph, and Greene – then I saw Chad Ford is forecasting the same things. Ugh. Interestingly enough, he foresees the Nets taking two centers. Right, because that always works out. Jason Thompson, Rider.
- Orlando Magic. Courtney Lee, Western Kentucky. Guys named Courtney are always overvalued (Courtney Alexander? Anyone?) This signals the end for J.J. Redick and the beginning of years of paid free-throw camps for Dick Vitale’s can’t-miss kid.
- Utah Jazz. Javale McGee, Nevada. Oh, like everyone doesn’t see this coming.
- Seattle SuperSonics. This is almost too good to be true! The Sonics, with another chance to select a first-round foreign kid and ship him to European oblivion forever! Alas, they take Roy Hibbert, Georgetown. If it’s any solace, Hibbert only ever looked palatable around Jeff Green. Take two, I guess.
- Houston Rockets. Robin Lopez, Stanford. With Rafer Alston and Mike James, it’s not like they need a point guard, right?
- San Antonio Spurs, Blazers, Grizz. You know as well as I do they’re all taking foreigners. Alexis Ajinca, Serge Ibaka, Nicholas Batum. Any three of them to any one of these teams.
- (29) Detroit Pistons. Bill Walker, Kansas State. I’ve got to believe that Walker knows he’s a first-rounder, otherwise he would have gotten out of this draft. Of course, we’re talking about the guy who peed in a towel during a game, so his mental capacity isn’t exactly staggering.
- (30) Boston Celtics. JR Giddens, New Mexico. I love mock drafts that try to pinpoint a need-only pick later in the draft to the NBA Champions. Well, they might need a better outlet passer or backup point guard, so here’s what they’ll do. At this point, Giddens is the best player available, and the Celtics can afford to take a chance on a talented player, even if he might be a head case.