Our favorite exercise in futility is once again upon us – the NBA Draft!
The cream of the crop among ordered selections of young athletes, pundits and casual fans alike sweating profusely over “upside,” “length,” “potential,” and “acumen.” The most tangible of all the major sports’ drafts – the NBA Draft is neatly packaged into a three-hour Must-See TV time block, with cohesive sports analysts working together, recognizable players from college and high school stages, and rapid-fire selections. It’s an event even the Worldwide Leader can’t screw up.
And this year, the draft is bursting with promise. You’ve likely read similar reports and mock drafts from ESPN’s Chad Ford & Bill Simmons, SI’s Ian Ekstrand, The Big Lead, plus numerous others, including the draft daddy of them all – NBA Draft-dot-Net. It’s a fair consensus that this year’s class is potentially shapeshifting – along the lines of 2003, and practically the opposite of 2000. As you can imagine, Mister Faded Glory is anxious to publish his own mock draft, operating under two assumptions:
- NBA General Managers are morons, slaves to conventional wisdom.
- Mister Faded Glory is prescient and perfect in his talent analysis. Nope, he never trumpeted John Wallace and Gary Trent as future stars or dismissed Amare Stoudemire and Kobe Bryant out of hat.
Anyway, it is a good draft, one that should be fun to predict. As always, I advocate best-player-available selections, with little regard for “need picks.” And, of course, I’m leery of “upside” in brief, college-stopover players while celebrating it in high school seniors. In this particular draft, I’m struck by its weight at the top, steep dropoff after the first two tiers, and depth within the second round.
For instance, if I picked after the top-ten, I would endeavor to trade down. How am I supposed to be convinced that Javaris Crittendon is that much better than Taurean Green? How is Jeff Green really any better than Alando Tucker? Are we serious that Nick Young is a better pick than Derrick Byars? And can’t I find a nutty, perpetual-motion rebounder in the second round rather than forking over first-round dollars for Joakim Noah?
In my mind, there are four can’t-misses in this year’s draft: Kevin Durant, Greg Oden, Corey Brewer and Mike Conley. Alternately, there’s a second tier of talent that looks enticing: Al Horford, Acie Law, Byars. After that, there’s a lot of talent – but to me, none of it’s safe, and even less of it is worth the headache of a high pick. And closing, there’s but a few red flags – perhaps the lack of red-flags best describes the deep talent pool: Yi JianLian, Julian Wright, Spencer Hawes, Brandan Wright, and the two kids from Georgia Tech come to mind; anyone else could conceivably be a productive player with the right fit. With that said, we’ll attempt to walk through the first round – alternately celebrating or decrying conventional wisdom, nuttiness, resumes, and upside. Let’s begin, after the jump:
1. Portland – Kevin Durant, F, Texas.
Yes, I know, Oden is the safer bet to have a solid pro career. But I doubt Durant is any less likely to succeed than, say, Carmelo Anthony? LeBron James? Kevin Garnett? Tracy McGrady? Durant is a unique player – extremely raw yet uniquely polished. Still improving – definitely on the upswing. And also, Portland would contend immediately – Randolph-Durant-Aldridge-Roy-Jack? That’s nothing to sneeze at. If I’m the Blazers, I take KD.
2. Seattle – Greg Oden, C, Ohio State
But I’m not, so Portland will actually take this guy. Less risk but less reward. Which is the way life works. A certainty is that Seattle has the easiest spot in the draft.
3. Atlanta – Al Horford, F, Florida
Was Horford good because of Noah, or the other way around? I would bet on Horford, and the word here is that the Hawks love him. You know, because he perfectly rounds out a lineup full of forwards – Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Shelden Williams, Marvin Williams. Ye gods. Atlanta should take Conley – but they won’t. According to Ford, they’ve been talking to Seattle about swapping their No. 11 pick for Luke Ridnour.
Yes, please pick your jaw up off the floor. If that rumor’s true – Seattle’s new GM is about to have the best draft ever. And the Hawks would screw up yet again.
(Although, the new uniforms are OK. Just OK. A little reference to the old Pac-Man logo would have been nice, rather than a blatant copy of Charlotte’s.)
4. Memphis – Mike Conley, PG, Ohio State
Oh, who knows. Everyone clamoring in L.A. for Jerry West’s return? This wreckage is what he hath wrought. Kyle Lowry, however, is a backup PG, while Conley has the third-highest ceiling in the draft, and a killer instinct. It’s a good pick – Hakim Warrick and Rudy Gay are about to improve exponentially with Conley’s addition.
5. Boston – Yi Jianlian, China
It just fits. There’s no way that Boston could screw themselves up any worse (all together now) . . . unless they take this guy. Bill Simmons details. Repeatedly. He’s right.
6. Milwaukee – Jeff Green, F/G, Georgetown
I don’t feel Jeff Green is really all that spectacular. I think he got hot at the right time and is a pretty good college player. No. 6 is too high, but I think the Bucks like his range a little more than Brewer’s, and with Bogut and Villaneuva, they need to look for more offense.
7. Minnesota – Brandan Wright, F, North Carolina.
I’m leery of Wright. He never really impressed me, and he reminds me in profile too much, too soon, of Marvin Williams. The Wolves need everywhere, depending on who they bring back in a trade now or later for KG.
8. Charlotte – Corey Brewer, F/G, Florida
Brewer slips a bit, but Charlotte should be elated to find him. A couple more remnants from national title winners to go with Brewer, May, Felton, and Okafor and they might win 20 games one of these years.
9. Chicago – Spencer Hawes, C, Washington
I have a friend who is a Bulls fan, and another who is a Sonics fan. This stiff pick is just the result of all the karma coming back at Friend No. 1 for making fun of horrific Sonics picks over the last three seasons. Why this kid came out, I’ll never know.
10. Sacramento – Julian Wright, F, Kansas
Probably very few Kings fans left, as the wheels have totally fallen off. If there are, expect many nights of cringing as Julian looks hopelessly lost on court.
11. Atlanta – Javaris Crittenton, G, Georgia Tech
What’s worse? Crittenton instead of Conley or Law? Or Ridnour instead of a No. 11 pick? You be the judge, because whichever is worse, is what will happen. P.S. The Nets and Hawks just signed on for a game at a neutral site, only no team knows which is which.
12. Philadelphia – Joakim Noah, F, Florida
I just can’t wrap my head around Noah. (Eww.) He’s high-energy, and a fantastic rebounder and shot-blocker. Is he an NBA game-changer? Absolutely not. Yet the media exhorts some teams to take him to boost sagging attendance. Because guys who can’t score, average 8 boards a night, and block a shot or two out of a mismatch just scream to season-ticket holders. Still, he’s highly regarded, and I think Philly would take him here.
13. New Orleans – Al Thornton, G, Florida State
New Orleans caught an injury bug and could actually have been a playoff team. Thornton is seasoned (Read: Older than Lebron James!) and could help right away. His age is a concern, but at least the Hornets will know after one year what type of player he’ll be.
14. LA Clippers – Nick Young, G, USC
Young is “troubled.” Ah, well, so are the Clips. We never saw this kid play. Sue us.
15. Detroit – Rodney Stuckey, G, E. Washington
Only because it’s been rumored for months. He could go higher. If you find one of his games on BetaMax or something, send it to us, so we can evaluate the pick.
16. Washington – Acie Law IV, G, Texas A&M
The Wiz just take the best player available in Law, who has a killer instinct and nice basketball acumen. I’m high on Law, an extremely impressive college player with a perpetual chip on his shoulder. Though I’ve been burned before. (Ahem! John Wallace.)
17. New Jersey – Thaddeus Young, F, Georgia Tech
See, what is it with these Georgia Tech kids? They were hot and cold all season, and barely snuck into the dance. Now, two of them could go in the top 16. Either Paul Hewitt is the worst coach ever, or something is wrong with scouting. Or both. Young is athletic, but, heh, so was Dave Johnson.
18. Golden State – Jason Smith, C, Colorado State
Over a decade or so, you would think a team that took Todd Fuller, Adonal Foyle, and Patrick O’Bryant would learn to stay away from flash-in-the-pan, unheralded centers. You’d be wrong.
19. L.A. Lakers – Gabe Pruitt, PG, USC
Local PG for a team already stuck with Smush Parker. Might as well give it a shot. They’ll be searching for trades anyway, and it beats taking Josh McRoberts. By the way, these are the dregs of the draft I’ve been talking about.
20. Miami – Daequan Cook, G, Ohio State
What? You don’t remember Cook from OSU’s Big Ten title and National Final run? As if that isn’t bad enough, he almost declared last year. Ouch.
21. Philadelphia – Sean Williams, C, Boston College
Flunkies out of Boston College are always great ideas. I repeat – this guy got kicked out of Boston College.
22. Charlotte – Marco Belinelli, SG, Italy
Wait! Everyone! There’s a team in Charlotte! No, I’m not just mixed up with Atlanta’s new uniforms.
23. New York – Wilson Chandler, SF, DePaul
I’ll give it to Isiah, he’s either brilliant or supremely stupid. He makes so many cover-your-eyes-awful moves, that when he promises the moon to an unheralded fringe prospect – and the dude plays better than expected, such as Renaldo Balkman – you end up thinking he must know something. That’s the logic here.
24. Phoenix – Marc Gasol, PF, Spain
I assume that he fits in Phoenix’s system, if he’s anything like his brother.
25. Utah – Derrick Byars, SG, Vanderbilt
Vastly underrated gamer that will not only help as a shooter for Utah’s burgeoning offense, but should fill the void if Andrei Kirilenko is shipped out. I was really impressed by this guy in college. Same with Shawn Respert, though.
26. Houston – Rudy Fernandez, PG, Spain
No one realizes that streetballer after streetballer is killing them at the point? No one?
27. Detroit – Aaron Brooks, PG, Oregon
Just loading up in case Billups leaves. Brooks may be an NBA backup. And – stop if you’ve heard this one – HE’S A TERRIBLE QUARTERBACK! YOU SEE, THERE’S ANOTHER PRO ATHLETE NAMED AARON BROOKS. YES, I’M THAT CLEVER!
28. San Antonio – Tiago Splitter, PF, Brazil
The Spurs get lucky with these cheapies from south of the Equator. (My apologies to Splitter, unlike Manu Ginobili, he may not actually be a cheap son of a bitch.)
29. Phoenix – Jared Dudley, SF, Boston College
ESPN talked Dudley up all year to the point where the slow, non-savvy, streaky-shooting small forward won ACC Player of the Year. And I’m totally convinced I could guard the guy. Color me unimpressed.
30. Philadelphia – Josh McRoberts, PF, Duke
It’s just too much to ask to pair him with Shav Randolph, isn’t it? I mean, how can the Sixers say no?
