This will be the last post you view at Mr. Faded Glory before (well, till Monday) the Super Bowl, which, to be honest, hasn’t diminished in surreality for Colts fans (or at least me). With that in mind, it’s tough to offer an unbiased prediction, if not impossible. However, I do think that the spread – 7 points for the Colts – is a little too high. I predict a much closer game than that. (Pundits always do.)
Scanning the Web, most sportswriters are now quickly stowing their hashed and tired storylines (Read: Rex and Marvin), and donning their prognosticator hat (Don’t want to channel Gregg Easterbrook, but why do they always attempt to forecast a score?). We learn that nearly everyone at SI thinks the Colts will triumph (Gulp). At ESPN, Len Pasquarelli spent all week championing the Colts, before his editors forced him to pick the Bears, moron writer Gene Woeraljel;rjlekej;ela selected the Bears, with his typical, insipid, attempts at tongue-in-cheek humor, and John Clayton is horribly wrong, but still selects the Colts:
Last year, [Edgerrin]James wasn’t a threat on the stretch plays that were so vital to the Colts’ offense. He didn’t get to the numbers with the same speed as he used to, so the Colts had to adjust their offense.
Has he watched the Colts? The stretch play is where Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes don’t match Edge‘s production — everywhere else they’ve picked up the slack. Regardless, nice of Clayton to give Addai some love, but he’s wrong.
Down the page, Bill Simmons predictably picks the Bears (Bill’s throwaway line in his I-heart-Miami column, suggesting “Nobody” thinks the Bears can win, was simply so he can craft himself as an underdog fan, for a change. No one respects Bill! His cogent analysis, lambasting the Colts D:
Against the Patriots, they gave up 34 points and it would have been more if Troy Brown didn’t get flagged for that illegal pick and the fourth-quarter interference against Reche Caldwell had been called.
Sigh. Sour grapes still. Does Bill not remember the Patriots’ three titles? I wish I was so lucky to forget those crappy, lost seasons … But also:
Remember when the 2003 Yankees outlasted the Red Sox in that seven-game bloodbath and had nothing left for the Marlins series because it was like they had already played their World Series? I’m not saying the same thing will definitely happen here, but it’s worth mentioning the Letdown Potential here. The Colts and their fans just spent the past two weeks breaking out the popsicles and doing the “we finally made it” routine.
I can’t believe Bill would compare these Colts to the Yankees, when, not two weeks ago, he lamented/celebrated the Patriots’ similarities to the late-1990s Yankess. You know who else broke out the popsicles and dildos? The Red Sox, in oh-fucking-four, after they finally dethroned their Yankees. It was a nonstop national media lovefest, before the Sox arrived at the World Series and summarily beat down the Cardinals, almost as an afterthought. Don’t the Colts parallel the Sox more than some forgotten Yankees’ team, from a forgotten World Series? Lots more baggage between the Horsies and the BoSox.
Now Bill’s backsliding down the slope of fandom, hoping to compare both his hated rivals just because, well, he hates them. If I can stomach the comparisons between the Colts and the dreaded Cardinals (see below), then he can do the same between the Colts and his Red Sox.
Speaking of the Cards, over at Football Outsiders, in Aaron Schatz’ outstanding and detailed game preview, the Bears’ and Colt’s statistical skews and inconsistencies confound the normal logic, and lead to Schatz’ possible rationalization:
The 2006 St. Louis Cardinals won the World Series with just 82 Pythagorean wins. They had the second-lowest Pythagorean winning percentage of any World Series champion in baseball history. Like the Colts, they were coming off two great seasons where they failed to go all the way. Like the Colts, they are led by a superstar who is probably one of the greatest players in his sport’s history. Like the Colts, their defense (pitching) fell apart during the regular season, and they looked weak entering the playoffs. Like the Colts, their defense dramatically improved during the postseason, once again making them the formidable team they had been in 2004 and 2005. Like the Colts hope to do, they took home a title that they “deserved” more in previous seasons.
True to form, Schatz reports that the title still feels the same to fans, of either the Bears or Colts, no matter if the history reports deride this year’s Super Bowl champ as a weak champion statistically. Pretty sure I watched a damn six-seed win the whole thing last year, so I’m not going to pay too much mind to statistical oddities.
And, finally, over at Deadspin, prominent bloggers and mainstream media sites are split various ways, culled together in yesterday’s post.
Whew. So it’s actually split, north, south, east, west, CBS to Fox and ESPN and SI and back again and the IndyStar to the KC Star and the like. Are you as worn out as me? Yes?
Well, nonetheless, I’m blissfully excited for the game. The Colts have their work cut out for them – the Bears are a formidable opponent, and some of their strengths dovetail with the Colts weaknesses.
However, life as a Colts fan, under reasoned Tony Dungy dictates calm under pressure and faith in the system. And I have faith in this Colts squad – maybe the team isn’t as overpowering as 2005, maybe it’s peaking at the right time (Ahem, St. Louis Cardinals), maybe it’s cresting after vanquishing its nemesis (Ahem, 2004 Boston Red Sox.). Maybe it’s fate, luck, time, or whatever. In the vein of our friends at FO, here’s what I see happening Sunday (or hope happens, whichever – not totally trying to separate my vested interest here):
WHEN THE COLTS HAVE THE BALL
- The Colts offense has hit numerous, documented dry spells this year, but has appeared to find its niche in the playoffs. Better defenses require a more patient attack, but a few things stand out against the Bears.
- The stretch play won’t work. Sure, they’ll try to run it, but the Bears linebackers are too quick. As usual, the stretch opens up the play-fake, but as unusual, I doubt the Bears are as susceptible to the play-fake as most teams. Look for more slants, underneaths, screens, and quick outs.
- Dallas Clark won’t be wide open. Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher can run with Clark, limiting his effectiveness.
- Short screens and blast plays to Rhodes or Addai may work. Briggs and Urlacher, conversely, have their hands full with Clark and Ben Utecht – and this should leave ample room for Peyton Manning to check down to Addai or Rhodes for short gains.
- Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison in the slot. The Colts expect to take their shots over the Bears safeties, but I think they may have more success matching Wayne or Harrison against a linebacker, if possible, and running the pair underneath, away from the corners and forcing the Bears’ talented linebackers to keep up.
- Peyton Manning and the O-Line. The Bears don’t do a lot of delayed blitzing, although Manning seems to have picked up on the delayed 3-4 schemes – he’s outstanding at moving in the pocket, and releasing before its collapse. FO recognizes his mobility, and he truly has improved this season at releasing the ball.
WHEN THE BEARS HAVE THE BALL
- The Bears offense is no worldbeater, but a couple of plays or players may give the Colts trouble, specifically because Indianapolis is missing the Innocent Criminal – Nick Harper. Rex Grossman (Seriously, lay off him. I’m more worried about him than I was Steve McNair or Trent Green) will look to find Bernard Berrian deep against Harper’s replacement, and will look to do so as Bob Sanders cheats up into run coverage. Which could happen, because of:
- Thomas Jones. He isn’t a great running back by any means, but is the kind of bowling-ball cutback runner who gives the Colts trouble.
- The Colts’ swarm. I fully expect Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis to commit to stopping the run, picking their spots for pass rush. With all the gnashing of teeth and frustration in diagnosis as the Colts yielded thousands of rush yards midseason, it was easy to miss what gives the Colts the absolute most trouble on defense:
- Answer: a mobile quarterback. Vince Young, Tony Romo and, gah, David Garrard killed the Colts, opening up running lanes for Travis Henry, Julius Jones, and Maurice Drew, respectively. The Colts are abysmal at containment. While Jones is a running back in the same vein as Drew, or even his brother, Rex isn’t a mobile quarterback, so the equation might actually break down. Still, expect to see a few reverses from the Bears with Berrian. This could keep the Colts honest as they pinch to stop the run. But screens? Quick pass plays? That’s what the Colts want.
- The takeaway. All season, the Colts defense has worked to take one thing away from opposing offenses and force them either into a weakness or away from a strength. Against the Bengals, they eliminated the pass. Against the Chiefs, it was the run. Against Byron Leftwich, it was the run. This is the choice the Colts make, and why the Patriots were a tough out — supposedly, New England does all things well. (Except, apparently, call running plays in playoff games.) Against the Bears, the Colts will sell out to stop the run, and take the chance their nickel cover corners — Marlin Jackson, Kelvin Hayden, and Jason David — can handle the Bears’ wideouts and Desmond Clark. And though I expect Muhsin Muhammad to have a fair share of catches, I don’t expect a lot of big plays thrown up on the Colts. If it happens, they’re in trouble.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Blah blah, Devin Hester, blah blah, Adam Vinateri. The Colts need to wrap. Not rap, like Li’l Ronnie (shudder), but wrap up the ballcarrier. Kickoffs into the end zone would be nice.
OUTLOOK
As a Colts fan, I feel like if I can pinpoint what they’re going to do on offense, then they are light years ahead of me.
As a Colts fan, I have faith in the defense to do enough, against the very biggest opponents.
As a Colts fan, I see wrinkles that worry me within the Bears’ schemes, but nothing that the Colts can’t handle.
As a Colts fan, I think it’s our time. And I fully have faith in the Colts to take care of Sunday. Honestly, in the last five years, they have proved us right more than let us down (Granted, Pittsburgh in 2005 was pretty low.).
As a Colts fan, I’m ready for the interminable two-week wait to end – and ready for the game to begin.
And, as a Colts fan, I feel like this is the crown to their recent run. Good luck to them – good luck to us – on Sunday.
