Cubs and downs

So I hear you’re wondering where I stand on the Chicago Cubs. Well, good news, because I’m ready to tell you.

As I’ve said before, I doubt anything I say is really that different from what you can possibly read anywhere in the Cubs Blog Army, but the Cubs are the official team of Mr. Faded Glory, and as such, it’s necessary to devote certain posts to them.

In my opinion, it’s best to look at the Cubs within Dusty Baker’s three-year window. The almost-fairy-tale season of 2003, the crushing expectations of 2004, and the retooled, revamped, and reloaded 2005.

And you know what? The Cubs were really never that great of a team over any of that span.

It’s true. The 2003 Cubs played inspired baseball – even learning to take pitches specifically for the playoffs – but aside from an August and September hot streak, they weren’t much better than a .500 team. They slugged it out with Houston and St. Louis for much of the year atop the Central, and outlasted both squads when Mark Prior and Kerry Wood became unhittable down the stretch.

The 2004 team suffered from injuries. Period. It was an improved team, with full years from Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Corey Patterson, but, in all honesty, if Prior and Wood make 5 more starts – the Cubs win the Wild Card. Sure, the year was a soap opera, but, come on, it’s Chicago. What season isn’t?

Now, in this season, the Cubs have unveiled an different look, jettisoning older talent, attempting to become younger in several places. They’re currently only 3 games over .500 – not too much different than the 2003 team, which never put .500 in the rearviewmirror until August.

And that’s fitting of this season’s Cubs. They’re probably a .500 team, truth be told. How many weeks have they gone 3-3? It’s frustrating, sure, they’ll play just well enough to keep you interested yet just poorly enough to drag you back down to reality. Still, there’s a lot of ifs involved….

They rode a nice hot streak in May and June, capitalizing on a West Coast trip, but stumbled again the following week against Toronto, Florida, and New York. They’re still navigating the toughest part of their schedule, and will – someday – have a chance at the Cardinals. They’re a long way back, but, well, most .500 teams are.

And, really, I don’t expect the world. I’m not living and dying with the season each day, like last year. What this team can give me is what they give me.

I’ve been encouraged, when the Cubs play better baseball than last year, in which players seemed not to understand the game. The Cubs still suffer from a misguided notion to swing early in counts, and they still suffer the occasional bullpen meltdown. So, they’re not much different than anyone else.

If they can stay in contention, rumor is that Jim Hendry is looking for some more pop to add to an outfield. Which is a good idea – Jason Dubois, Todd Hollandsworth, Jeromy Burnitz, and particularly Corey Patterson have all been underwhelming.

Supposedly his options are (a) Preston Wilson (yuck); (b) Aubrey Huff (okay); (c) Mark Kotsay (a godsend); and if Patterson is the one who has to go, as I’ve said before, you can’t trade him for Wilson. You can trade him for Kotsay, who would be a better fit at the top of the Cubs’ batting order, and who’s defense isn’t too much of a falloff.

That’s the Cubs. There’s good things about this season and bad things. Dusty Baker still maddeningly doesn’t know how to fill out a lineup card, and still adheres to the double switch – but I can overlook a few tactical miscues in exchange for a manager that inspires the team to run through a wall. His teams were never overwhelming in San Francisco, strikingly similar to this year’s Cubs – one otherworldly slugger surrounded by spare parts.

Sergio Mitre looks to have made the leap. Whether he continues to flourish as a Cub is yet to be seen, but it’s nice to see the Cubs’ instruction has prepared him for the big leagues. Glendon Rusch continues to be a find as a starter or long reliever. The Ryan Dempster Experiment appears to have paid off – Ryano is now a solid (cough) closer. At least he has his head on straight.

And, the much-maligned bullpen – well, Wuertz, Wellemeyer, Ohman have all done the job for the most part. Nice to see those younger arms rather than Mike Remlinger or the ghost of Joe Borowski.

King Jeromy the Wicked isn’t the greatest — but he plays hard and has been an upgrade over Sammy Sosa (version 2004), and Aramis Ramirez has (finally) rounded into form. Mike Barrett is an all-star, and Derrek Lee is the MVP. Too many ifs surround this team to expect them to contend (If Corey can ever figure it out, if Neifi can keep being productive, if the pitchers come back as promised.)

But you know what? If they can stay somewhat close to the Cardinals, then maybe the ifs can work out – if they continue to play hard … well, who says another hot streak isn’t in the August (ahem) cards? Meaningful September baseball is what we ask for each season. And it’s well too early to dismiss that. So, go cubs. If they’re playing their best baseball at the end of the season, anything can happen.